Trading the news: NFP, CPI, FOMC and gold

• NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): the monthly US jobs report, usually on the first Friday at 8:30 AM New York time.
• CPI: monthly US inflation data, 8:30 AM New York time, date varies.
• FOMC: the Federal Reserve rate decision, eight times a year, 2:00 PM New York time, followed by a press conference.

All three affect the US dollar, and gold is priced in dollars, so gold reacts to all of them.

In the first seconds, spreads can widen and price can spike both ways, taking liquidity above and below. The first move is often not the real move.

It is the first Friday of the month. In Pakistan, NFP is released in the evening, so you check the exact time in the calendar in the morning.

Thirty minutes before the release you have no open trades. At the release, gold drops sharply, then reverses and rallies harder within minutes, sweeping both sides. Spreads widen and some stop orders fill far from where they were placed.

After about 15 to 30 minutes, the spike settles. Now structure is readable again: you see which side was swept and whether price is building higher lows. That is when analysis starts, not at the first candle.

• Holding a full-size trade into high-impact news. The outcome is closer to a coin flip than a plan.
• Placing tight stops right before the release. Spreads can widen and fill you far away.
• Trading the headline number alone. The market reacts to the surprise versus expectations and to revisions.
• Forgetting other events. Speeches by central bank officials can move gold as much as data.

Every release has an actual, a forecast and a previous value. The market reacts to the surprise: actual minus forecast. A strong US number usually strengthens the dollar and pushes gold down; a weak one does the opposite. But the first reaction is often reversed once the details and revisions are read.

1. Check the calendarEvery Sunday, mark this week's high-impact events in your own time.
2. Reduce exposureTighten or close trades before the release, or reduce size on news days.
3. Wait and readAfter the spike, look for a sweep and a shift in structure, as on any other day.